Did Taylor Swift really affect the UK inflation figures?

The press loves tying a statistic to a celebrity to encourage their articles to be read, so it was not surprising to see the 'Taylor Swift effect' be described as a factor for keeping inflation over 2% in the UK.

The reason given is her massive global tour and its arrival on UK shores which in theory pushed up hotel prices as fans converged en masse on the cities hosting her concerts. 

The 2% figure for May to June 2024 comes from the Office of National Statistics and it is claimed is likely to prevent an interest rate cut. Zeroing in on the 'Taylor Swift effect', this refers to a 9% rise in hotel prices.

When you look at the language used however, the articles are more circumspect with The Guardian saying that 'some analysts' have made the claim which you could probably say about just anything!

Looking closer at the figures, it is highly unlikely that even a star of Swift's scale can have that effect on the whole UK hotel market. There are other factors clearly at play with the combined 'Restaurants & Hotels' and 'Transport' both well above the 2% figure. 

These sectors are offset by 'Clothing & footwear' and 'Communication' which are more than 2% reduced for which you could equally tenuously say that Taylor Swift concert attendees aren't buying clothing or using their phones, nonsense of course given they are a drop in the ocean as part of the overall market.

So, a nice line to hang a headline on, but the truth is likely to be much less glamorous market shifts.

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